"Trump doesn't realize that ex-KGB agent Putin is manipulating him": Interview with John Bolton

22 квітня 2025 р. 14:50

22 квітня 2025 р. 14:50

The former Trump advisor sheds light on how the U.S. President makes decisions about Ukraine.

In just three months in office, U.S. President Donald Trump went from promising to "end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours" to considering pulling out of the negotiation process altogether. Is such a scenario realistic? And why does Trump see Putin as a friend?

Read below in the interview of "Telegraf" with John Bolton, who served as Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor in 2018–2019.

"Trump sees the world through the prism of personal relations"

— Recently, the White House stated that Trump is disappointed with both Russia and Ukraine in terms of the negotiation process. It’s really interesting to hear your opinion—what should we expect next from a disappointed Trump? Could he actually walk away from the negotiations altogether?

— I think he doesn't really have any direction one way or the other.

Trump obviously hoped there would be a way to make this conflict go away. During the campaign, he said he would get Putin and Zelenskyy in a room and resolve everything within 24 hours. That was totally unrealistic and hasn't happened.

He doesn't really fundamentally understand Ukraine's side of this conflict and called the war "senseless", as if fighting for your freedom and independence doesn't mean anything.

I think Trump sees the world through the prism of personal relations. If he has a good personal relationship with Putin, he thinks the U.S. and Russia have good relations. And if he has a bad personal relationship with the leader, he thinks the U.S. and that country have bad relations.

Trump believes it's "Biden's war". He said the war would never have happened if he had been president. And he'd just like to get it over with so he can go back to good relations with Vladimir Putin and Russia. There's no grand strategy at work here.

Putin has basically defied his request for a ceasefire, even a partial one, and Trump hasn't done very much in response. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, knows nothing about Russia, knows nothing about Ukraine, has no understanding of the war himself.

At this point, Trump's short span of attention has been diverted elsewhere. Obviously, we're in the middle of a trade war and a range of other things. So my prediction in the near term is that not much changes.

*This interview was recorded before Moscow announced the so-called "Easter truce" — which Russian forces themselves violated nearly 3,000 times through assaults and shelling along the front line.

"Trump doesn't have a philosophy"

— So, does Trump really believe that he and Putin are friends, given his view that the U.S. and Russia can normalize relations?

— Because Trump views the conflict as senseless, he doesn't see why he can't get back to good relations with Russia, looking forward to doing deals of some kind, maybe on oil, maybe on other things.

But Trump doesn't have a philosophy. He's not pursuing a policy here that makes any sense. He's very transactional—that's the word that's often applied. And it means that he goes from one deal to another without seeing the connections between them.

Since Trump knows very little of Ukraine or the history of the region, he doesn't see the difficulties that lie ahead. Putin may agree to a pause in this war, or he may not make much progress, but that doesn't mean he's given up on the objectives he said going back as far back as 2005, which essentially amount to recreating the Russian Empire. That's what this is all about.

So a pause today doesn't mean the problem is solved, because in Putin's mind he still doesn't have the right answer.

"Trump tends to trust what Putin tells him"

— Trump has various advisors and special envoys around him—like Witkoff, whom you mentioned. But who does he actually listen to? And whose vision aligns most closely with his own?

— He listens to whomever he agrees with at a particular moment. One way of looking at Trump's way of getting advice is that he talks to enough people until he finally finds someone who agrees with him. That's one reason why Putin's ability to manipulate Trump, and I think to manipulate Witkoff too, is so disturbing, because Trump tends to trust what Putin tells him.

I mean, he's his "friend" after all. Doesn't your friend tell you the truth? And Witkoff doesn't know enough to see the difference [between the truth and lies].

So, ways need to be found to convince Trump that Putin is not telling him things that are necessarily in America's interest. We know they're not in Ukraine's interest, but we have to explain to Trump that it's not in his interest to listen to Putin either.

— How to bring Trump the understanding of this war, the history, and the reality of Ukraine—especially given that he’s never been here and has never seen what’s actually happening?

— That's a key question. Zelenskyy made a lot of efforts. Other people have tried without much success, unfortunately.

And maybe if somebody could persuade Elon Musk that Ukraine was fighting for legitimate interests, being free and independent, that would have an impact.

But Trump is surrounded by people who don't know much about the region, its history, and who just see it as a burden that the U.S. gets nothing out of. In fact, when you try and explain why preventing unprovoked aggression in the center of Europe is in America's interest, it just goes right over their heads.

— At the same time, we see a lot of focus on China in the second Trump administration. Do you think they will succeed with the idea of decoupling Russia from China?

— No, I don't. I think it's a theory that some of his supporters have come up with.

In principle, of course, we'd like to separate Russia from China. I raised this with the Russians when I was National Security Advisor and said you're getting dangerously close to China. Dangerously from Russia's own point of view, because you're in the grip of a country with fewer nuclear weapons, but greater population and resources in many respects. And the Russians just didn't take the point on board. They didn't acknowledge that they had a problem.

And in any event, the argument that we can separate Russia from China as a condition to them agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine that satisfies their needs, is not a trade-off we should make.

It's not going to separate Russia from China, and it will result in surrendering a good part of Ukrainian territory.

— What will Trump's second presidency mean for NATO? We've seen a lot of really concerning messages about a possible diminished role of the United States in the Alliance.

— I think it remains very concerning that Trump could withdraw from NATO, as he very nearly did at the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels.

Because of the conflict that Russia has started, the relationship with NATO is becoming very acute. That's one reason why Trump said he doesn't favor NATO security guarantees or membership for Ukraine. I think those positions are wrong and are concessions to Russia that, even if you were going to make them, should come at the end of negotiations, not at the beginning.

I think that's part of the proof that Trump doesn't understand this war, and wants out of the way. That really means he doesn't care how it's resolved, which is obviously very dangerous for American security, and for Ukraine.

— Some people call Trump a bad negotiator because he gave up some leverages over Russia. What do you think of his negotiating skills?

— He thinks he's a great negotiator. But as you say, he's given up a lot of these points without negotiating at all.

And I think Putin, ex-KGB agent that he is, knows how to manipulate Trump, and he's been doing it for the past couple of months. Trump doesn't realize that. He thinks he's talking to a friend.

Putin couldn't care less about friendship. He's trying to advance Russia’s national interests, and Trump doesn't see that.

But that's one reason why Putin is in no hurry to agree to a ceasefire or to substantive negotiations when he can talk directly to Trump or Witkoff, who are susceptible to his manipulation. That's his way of getting what he wants.

— What are the risks of close relations between Moscow and Washington? Is it a kind of formation of a new world order? What does it indicate?

— I don't think it indicates any long-term pattern. This is the reflection that Trump is an aberration in American politics. His term still has 45 months to run, but it's not eternity.

When his term ends, I think that you'll see a snap back to more conventional American positions. But in the meantime, it's important to try to mitigate the damage that Trump can do.

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